The Indian rupee weakened to 90.77 against the US dollar on February 10, 2026, extending recent losses as strong corporate dollar demand and global currency shifts pressured the market. Dealers across Mumbai reported steady greenback buying from importers and energy companies, which outweighed sporadic exporter sales. The decline highlighted fragile sentiment in Asia’s third-largest economy and renewed focus on policy signals from the Reserve Bank of India.
Currency traders tracked heavy demand from oil marketing firms that rushed to secure dollar supplies amid elevated crude prices. India imports more than 80 percent of its oil needs, and refiners often increase hedging activity when global benchmarks fluctuate. That demand cycle tends to amplify rupee volatility during periods of global uncertainty.
The rupee opened on a cautious note in the interbank market in Mumbai and drifted lower through the session as offshore funds trimmed exposure to emerging market currencies. Dealers noted that the dollar index remained firm against a basket of peers, which limited the rupee’s ability to stage a rebound. Short-term traders also cited technical resistance levels that discouraged aggressive long positions in the domestic unit.
Market participants observed that large corporates accelerated dollar purchases after recent trade agreements increased cross-border payment flows. Even though policymakers had celebrated fresh trade momentum, immediate settlement requirements created short-term pressure on the currency. Import-heavy sectors such as electronics, defense equipment, and renewable energy components added to demand.
The slide to 90.77 represented an 11-paise drop from the previous close. While the move appeared modest in absolute terms, traders emphasized the psychological impact of crossing key levels near 90.50. Breaching such thresholds can shift momentum trading strategies and trigger algorithmic selling.
Officials at the Reserve Bank of India monitored the situation closely. The central bank has maintained a managed float framework, which allows market forces to determine direction while smoothing excessive volatility through targeted intervention. Dealers said the RBI likely sold dollars intermittently to curb abrupt swings, though authorities did not confirm specific operations.
India’s macroeconomic backdrop presents a mixed picture. The economy continues to post solid growth numbers driven by infrastructure spending and digital expansion. However, imported inflation and widening trade deficits exert pressure on the current account. When global risk appetite declines, foreign portfolio investors often reduce exposure to emerging markets, which can accelerate currency depreciation.
Bond market dynamics also played a role. Yields on US Treasuries remained elevated relative to Indian government securities, which encouraged capital flows toward dollar assets. Interest rate differentials shape carry trade strategies, and shifts in global expectations can alter investor positioning quickly. As funds rotated toward safer assets, the rupee absorbed part of the adjustment.
Equity markets in India showed resilience, yet foreign institutional investors recorded net outflows over recent sessions. Currency dealers pointed out that sustained equity inflows typically provide a buffer for the rupee, while outflows intensify pressure. The interplay between stock market flows and foreign exchange supply remains central to short-term stability.
Energy importers have remained especially active. Brent crude prices hovered near multi-month highs, and refiners increased forward contracts to lock in costs. Each such contract requires dollar purchases, which feed directly into interbank demand. Exporters in sectors such as information technology and pharmaceuticals provided partial counterbalance, but their selling volumes did not match importer appetite.
Analysts believe that structural reforms and stronger export diversification could reduce vulnerability over time. India has expanded manufacturing incentives and sought to boost electronics production under its industrial policy programs. If exports grow faster than imports, the rupee could gain firmer footing. For now, near-term flows dominate direction.
Currency strategists also watch geopolitical signals. Trade negotiations between major economies and shifting supply chains influence capital allocation. When uncertainty rises, investors often favor the dollar due to its reserve currency status. That pattern tends to weigh on Asian currencies, including the rupee.
Domestic inflation trends add another layer of complexity. If consumer prices accelerate, the central bank may face pressure to adjust policy rates. Higher rates could support the rupee by improving yield appeal, yet they could also slow credit expansion. Policymakers must weigh currency stability against growth objectives.
Corporate treasurers have adopted more proactive hedging strategies in recent months. Many firms increased forward cover ratios to protect balance sheets from exchange-rate swings. Such behavior can smooth volatility over longer horizons, yet it can also intensify spot demand during peak settlement cycles.
The move to 90.77 has sparked debate among market commentators. Some argue that the rupee’s gradual depreciation reflects fundamental realities such as persistent trade deficits and global dollar strength. Others contend that India’s growth trajectory and reform momentum justify stronger valuation. The truth likely lies between those perspectives, shaped by cyclical flows and structural trends alike.
Technical analysts highlight support near 91.00 and resistance around 90.30. If the rupee holds above support, traders may attempt short-covering rallies. If it breaches that threshold, momentum selling could accelerate. Much will depend on upcoming US inflation data and signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate paths.
Retail investors have also taken notice. Currency volatility influences gold prices and overseas education expenses, both of which carry strong resonance among Indian households. Financial advisors have encouraged diversified portfolios and disciplined hedging to navigate uncertain conditions.
Despite the day’s decline, policymakers project confidence. Officials reiterate that India’s foreign exchange reserves remain ample and provide a strong buffer against external shocks. Those reserves, which exceed $600 billion, equip authorities with tools to manage abrupt disruptions. Market participants draw reassurance from that cushion even as they navigate daily fluctuations.
The rupee’s path will hinge on a delicate balance of domestic resilience and global sentiment. Corporate dollar demand, oil price movements, portfolio flows, and central bank strategy will continue to shape direction. For now, traders brace for continued volatility while scanning data releases and policy signals for clues.
India’s currency story reflects broader shifts in the global financial landscape. Emerging markets must adapt to higher global rates and shifting trade patterns. The rupee’s dip to 90.77 underscores the interconnected forces that drive exchange rates in an era of rapid capital movement and persistent geopolitical tension.
Also Read – The SIP Market Crash Horror Stories
