A Shockwave in the Markets

Markets around the world saw an explosive reaction following President Donald Trump’s April 9 announcement of a 90-day pause on most planned tariff hikes. The declaration, aimed at offering a temporary reprieve in the intensifying global trade war, set off a dramatic bullish move across major indices. Both the GIFT Nifty Index Futures and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) charted what traders refer to as “loud move” candles—single-session, high-volume breakout candles that signal powerful market sentiment.

This article offers a comprehensive technical analysis of the immediate market reaction, the indicators supporting this move, and a forecast of what could happen next.

The Macro Catalyst – Tariff Pause and Market Relief

President Trump’s decision to impose a 90-day pause on his reciprocal tariff policy came after significant global backlash and economic uncertainty. While China faced an increase in tariffs to 125%, U.S. allies were given breathing room, leading to a surge in global investor confidence.

This announcement served as a major macroeconomic catalyst, triggering high-volume buying and broad-based rallies across global markets. The GIFT Nifty and Dow Jones, in particular, posted standout sessions with their respective charts reflecting immediate technical breakouts.

GIFT Nifty Index Futures – Daily Chart Breakdown

Price Action

The GIFT Nifty Index Futures surged by over 750 points (+3.35%), closing at 23,356. This sharp upward movement formed a full-bodied bullish candle that erased multiple days of previous losses in a single session.

The move originated near the 22,307 support level and climbed past the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone at 23,101.5. This indicates that the bullish rally has legs and is supported by technical conviction.

Fibonacci Levels

Indicators

• MACD (12,26): The MACD line at 21.0 is currently below the signal line (76.9), but the histogram is shrinking, hinting at an imminent bullish crossover.
• Volume: Sharp rise in volume supports the authenticity of the move.
• Moving Averages: The price has decisively breached the 50-day SMA (23,015) and is on its way to testing the 200-day SMA (24,106.5).

What Could Happen Next

The loud bullish candle signals renewed interest from buyers, and the market may have seen the bottom of the recent bearish trend. If prices sustain above 23,500 and especially 24,100, it could mark the end of the recent bearish phase and the beginning of a medium-term bullish trend.

However, possibilities include:

1. Bullish Continuation: If momentum continues, GIFT Nifty may hit 24,125 and extend to 24,450 and 25,180. This would confirm a trend reversal with a new higher high.
2. Healthy Pullback: A retracement toward 23,100 or 22,850 could occur before another rally. Such corrections are natural in an uptrend.
3. False Breakout: If price fails to hold 23,000, and breaks below 22,850, it might turn into a bull trap, leading back to 22,300.
4. Sideways Consolidation: Price could also consolidate between 23,000 and 23,500 as traders wait for global cues or earnings triggers.

If follow-through buying continues in the next few sessions, especially with strength above 24,000, it will likely confirm that the bearish trend has ended and a new bullish phase has begun.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) – 75-Minute Chart Analysis

Price Action

The Dow Jones staged a spectacular recovery, surging nearly 388 points (+0.96%) and closing at 40,695.50. The rally was marked by a massive bullish engulfing candle, which cleared multiple Fibonacci levels and sliced through major moving averages.

Fibonacci Levels

Indicators

• MACD: Extremely bullish. The MACD line (414.63) has sharply crossed above the signal line (-4.01), showing rising momentum.
• Histogram: Exploding green bars support the bullish trend.
• Moving Averages: Price has decisively breached the 200-period SMA (40,547), indicating bullish dominance.

What Lies Ahead

The Dow’s sharp upward spike on high volume suggests a shift in sentiment. The price breakout above multiple fib levels suggests strong buying pressure.

Possibilities include:

1. Immediate Rally: If Dow sustains above 40,600, it may test 41,050 and eventually 41,500.
2. Minor Pullback: A small retracement toward 39,700–40,000 may occur due to profit booking before continuing higher.
3. Trend Confirmation: Closing above 41,000 for a couple of sessions could confirm the start of a broader uptrend.
4. Volatility Trap: If Dow slips below 39,800, it may revisit 38,900 to retest support.

Considering the powerful MACD and volume surge, the probability of a bullish continuation is strong. If this move holds, it may signal an end to the correction phase.

Market Sentiment and Possibility of Bear Market Ending

The powerful candles formed on both GIFT Nifty and Dow charts are not just technical patterns—they reflect changing sentiment. These could mark a major psychological shift in market behavior:

• Bear Trend Ending? If indices sustain their gains and continue forming higher highs and higher lows, we could indeed be witnessing the end of the bear market phase that began late last year.
• Confirmation Required: This will only be confirmed if key resistances like 24,100 (GIFT Nifty) and 41,000 (Dow) are broken and held on strong volume.
• Investor Repositioning: Institutional flows shifting back into equities post-announcement suggests large players are anticipating stability.
• Macro Overhang: However, escalation from China or poor earnings could reverse gains. Until clarity emerges, markets may remain sensitive to news flow.

Strategic Trade Ideas

Traders should watch for price behavior around key levels and avoid chasing rallies without consolidation.

Conclusion – A Loud Signal or Just Noise?

Trump‘s tariff pause has clearly injected life into the markets, but whether this rally sustains depends on upcoming data and global political responses. The loud bullish candles seen on GIFT Nifty and Dow charts are early signs of a shift in momentum, possibly the start of a new bullish cycle.

If price action follows through in the coming sessions and overcomes resistance, we might look back at April 9 as the turning point where the bear market ended and a new bull cycle began.

But until that’s confirmed, stay sharp, use tight stop-losses, and keep your charts close.

ALSO READ: Trump Pauses Tariffs, Slams China With 125% Hike