Indian Stock Market Summary

NIFTY 50 Overview

• Closing: 24,039.35
• Weekly Change: +0.79%

The benchmark index NIFTY 50 maintained its upward trajectory this week, led by strong domestic institutional inflows and positive global sentiment.
However, the gains narrowed towards the weekend amid profit booking in heavyweight stocks.

Key Observations:

• Broader market participation remains strong, with Smallcap and Midcap indices outperforming.
• FII flows slowed down but remained positive for the third consecutive week.
• Defensive sectors like FMCG, Pharma also attracted buying interest, indicating a cautious undertone.

Technical Outlook:

• Immediate Resistance: 24,500
• Immediate Support: 23,500
• Trend: Bullish above 23,500; correction risk increases below this level.

BANKNIFTY Overview

• Closing: 54,664.05
• Weekly Change: +0.69%

BANKNIFTY witnessed a relatively muted move compared to NIFTY, reflecting profit booking in Private Banking names.

Key Observations:

• PSU Banks remained resilient, while Private Banks faced some liquidation pressures.
• Investors are awaiting earnings from ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank, and SBI, which could drive short-term momentum.
• Credit growth data remains encouraging, but margins could be under slight pressure going forward.

Technical Outlook:

• Immediate Resistance: 56,000
• Immediate Support: 52,800
• Trend: Consolidation phase with a positive bias.

Sectoral Performance

Best Performing Sector: Nifty IT

Key Drivers:

• Positive management commentary on deal wins.
• Rebound in US tech spending projections.
• Attractive valuations post prolonged underperformance.

Broader View:

• Nifty IT index outperformed after five consecutive weeks of underperformance, suggesting possible medium-term bottom formation.

Worst Performing Sector: Nifty Media

Key Drivers of Weakness:

• Delay in key mergers (Zee-Sony deal uncertainty).
• Poor revenue visibility due to ad budget cuts in Auto and FMCG sectors.
• Regulatory overhangs and weak operating leverage.

Broader View:

• Structural headwinds continue in traditional media; OTT transition is gaining ground but monetization remains slow.

Key Corporate Highlights

Major Developments:

1. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) acquiring 59% stake in SML Isuzu for ₹555 crore:
   • Strengthens presence in the light and medium commercial vehicle (CV) segment.
   • Strategic fit to compete with Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors in CV space.
2. IDFC First Bank Q4 Results:
   • Net profit declined due to one-time provisioning.
   • Healthy operating performance with strong retail loan growth (+27% YoY).
   • Management guided for stronger recovery in FY26.
3. Reliance Industries Limited Q4 FY25:
   • Retail and Jio Platforms posted strong revenue growth.
   • Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) business margins remained under pressure.
   • Announced expansion plans in green energy and data center verticals.
4. GAIL and CONCOR MoU:
   • Collaborating to establish LNG infrastructure at logistics hubs.
   • Aims to lower carbon footprint in logistics sector, aligning with government’s green logistics push.

Global Market Snapshot

Highlights:

• Tech stocks outperformed; Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet reported better-than-expected earnings.
• US GDP growth slightly lower at 1.6% for Q1 but inflation data eased fears of further Fed hikes.
• Easing US-China tariff tensions further buoyed global risk appetite.

Market Indicators

Interpretation:

• VIX rising slightly suggests increasing caution among traders.
• DII inflows continue supporting market even as FII flows show mild slowing.
• Oil price rise could put pressure on India’s CAD if it sustains.

What to Watch Next Week

1. Corporate Earnings:
   ICICI Bank, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel, and Kotak Bank to report.
2. Macro Data:
   • GST Collections (April numbers)
   • Core sector output data
3. Central Bank Actions:
   • US Fed policy meet on May 1st: Fed is expected to maintain rates but commentary on economic conditions will be crucial.
4. IPO Buzz:
   • Several SME and Mainboard IPOs like Iware Supplychain Services and others are closing soon.
5. Sector Focus:
   • Auto (monthly sales), Banking (post-earnings guidance), and IT (midcap recovery stories).

Final Word: Strategy for Investors

• Short-Term:
  Book partial profits at higher levels; cautious trading near resistance zones.
• Medium to Long-Term:
  Use dips to accumulate fundamentally strong sectors like IT, FMCG, Private Banks, and Green Energy stocks.
• Avoid:
  Highly leveraged companies, Media stocks facing regulatory or merger uncertainties.

📈 Pro Tip:
Track India VIX closely. Sustained rise above 14-15 could signal market volatility expansion, needing more defensive positioning.

Weekly Market Wrap Summary Table

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