Bitcoin has reached a key point for the crypto market. BTC now trades near $77,000 after a very strong week. The asset rose about 21% in one week, which has put traders back into a more bullish mood. On August 21, BTC also broke above $77,000 after a rise of about 10% in one day. That move took Bitcoin to a three-month high.
Now, the market has a new test. The focus has moved from the price chart to the U.S. Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair, will give his first major Jackson Hole speech on Friday, August 28. The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium runs from August 27 to August 29, 2026.
For Bitcoin, this event matters because U.S. rates can have a major effect on risk assets. When traders expect lower rates and easier financial conditions, assets such as Bitcoin often get more support. If rates stay high or rise, the opposite can occur.
Why Kevin Warsh Matters So Much
Warsh has not given the market a clear path for future U.S. rates. That lack of clear guidance has made his Jackson Hole speech even more important. Investors want to know how he views inflation, growth and the future path of monetary policy.
His view on inflation may be the most important part of the speech. Inflation has stayed above the Fed’s 2% target for a long time. At the same time, the U.S. economy has shown signs of weaker demand and softer jobs data. This puts the Fed in a difficult position.
A recent market view showed that the chance of no September rate hike rose to 69% by mid-August. Markets had once expected two rate hikes by the end of the year, but that view has changed.
That change has helped risk assets. Bitcoin has also gained from this shift in expectations.
The Dollar Is Helping Bitcoin
The U.S. dollar is another major part of the Bitcoin story. On August 24, the dollar stayed near multi-month lows. Concerns about U.S. government debt have hurt confidence in the currency. The dollar also had its largest weekly fall against Bitcoin in more than three years.
A weaker dollar can help Bitcoin because BTC is priced in dollars. More importantly, a weak dollar can signal easier financial conditions or lower demand for U.S. currency assets.
Gold has also shown strong demand. Recent market data put gold near $4,644 per ounce, with investors focused on inflation, debt and central bank policy. Bitcoin and gold can both benefit when traders worry about currency value and government debt.
This does not mean Bitcoin must rise every time the dollar falls. But the current mix gives BTC a useful macro tailwind.
Treasury Yields Are the Main Risk
The bond market tells a less comfortable story.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.69% on August 20, based on Federal Reserve data. On August 24, other market data put the 10-year yield near 4.74%. The 2-year Treasury yield was about 4.23% on August 24.
These are high levels for risk assets to handle.
Long-term U.S. yields have also stayed close to levels last seen many years ago. Recent reports said the 30-year yield was near 5.25%, while the 10-year yield remained close to 4.7%.
High yields can create pressure on Bitcoin. Investors can earn more from government debt, so the need to take risk may fall. High yields can also reduce the value that traders place on future gains from assets such as technology stocks and crypto.
This is why Warsh’s speech matters so much. If his message causes bond yields to fall, Bitcoin could get another boost. If yields jump, BTC could face a sharp pullback.
ETF Demand Gives Bitcoin Support
Bitcoin also has a strong source of demand from U.S. spot ETFs.
On August 19, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs had about $517 million in net inflows. That was the largest single-day inflow since early May. On August 20, the 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $600 million in net inflows.
These figures matter because ETF flows show real demand from investors who want Bitcoin exposure through regulated market products.
The strong ETF demand also helps explain why BTC has held near $77,000 after such a large move. Price gains based only on short-term traders can fade very fast. Strong ETF demand can give the market a stronger base.
Still, traders should not assume that large inflows will continue every day. ETF demand can change fast if the macro picture turns against risk assets.
The PCE Data Adds Another Risk
Jackson Hole is not the only major event this week.
The U.S. will also release July Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, inflation data. PCE is one of the most important inflation measures for the Federal Reserve. Core PCE is expected to show a 0.2% monthly rise, while annual core inflation is expected at 3.2%.
This data could affect the market before Warsh speaks.
If inflation looks softer than expected, traders may see more room for easier Fed policy. That could push Treasury yields lower and help Bitcoin.
If inflation looks stronger than expected, the market may reduce hopes for lower rates. Treasury yields could rise, the dollar could gain, and Bitcoin could lose some of its recent strength.
The timing makes the week even more important. Traders will get fresh inflation data before they hear directly from the Fed chair.
What Could Push Bitcoin Higher
The best case for Bitcoin is fairly simple.
Warsh could give a calm or soft message on rates. PCE inflation could come in close to or below expectations. Treasury yields could fall. The dollar could remain weak. ETF demand could stay strong.
That mix would give Bitcoin a strong macro setup.
BTC has already moved about 21% in one week, so another large move would need fresh demand. A clear fall in yields could provide that extra support.
In that case, $80,000 becomes an important psychological level. A clean move above that area could improve market confidence and attract more buyers.
What Could Send BTC Lower
The main bearish case is also clear.
Warsh could sound tough on inflation. He could warn that rates need to stay high for longer. PCE inflation could come in above forecasts. Treasury yields could rise further.
That combination could hit Bitcoin hard because the market has already enjoyed a very large rally.
A move back toward $72,000–$74,000 would then become possible. Such a drop would not necessarily mean the larger trend had failed. It could simply mean that traders took profit after the 21% weekly surge.
Bitcoin is also known for large price swings. A sharp move in either direction around a major Fed event would not be unusual.
The Bigger Bitcoin Story
The Jackson Hole event is important, but it should not be viewed as a simple bullish or bearish event.
The real question is how Warsh’s message compares with what the market already expects.
If traders expect a cautious Fed and Warsh sounds even softer, Bitcoin could react very well. If traders expect a cautious Fed but Warsh sounds much tougher, the reaction could be very different.
That surprise factor may matter more than any single phrase from the speech.
For now, Bitcoin has strong momentum, ETF demand is solid, the dollar is weak and BTC holds near $77,000. At the same time, Treasury yields remain high and inflation is still above the Fed’s target.
The Week Ahead
Bitcoin enters Jackson Hole with a strong market position, but the next move may depend more on macro data than on crypto news.
The key levels and data are clear. BTC is near $77,000 after a 21% weekly rise. The 10-year Treasury yield is near 4.7%, while the 2-year yield is around 4.23%. The dollar sits near multi-month lows. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows recently reached $517 million and $600 million on separate days.
Now the market waits for PCE inflation data and Kevin Warsh’s first major Jackson Hole speech.
For Bitcoin, this could be the week that confirms the recent rally — or the week that shows just how much profit traders are ready to take.
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