On June 18, 2025, the Indian equity markets began with a subdued tone due to negative global cues but ended on a much stronger footing. Early declines were a result of cautious investor sentiment triggered by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising crude oil prices. However, strong domestic institutional buying and selective participation from foreign investors fueled a mid-session recovery that pushed both Nifty 50 and Sensex back into positive territory.
This article presents a comprehensive analysis of intraday movements, institutional activity, sectoral trends, major stock action, and what can be expected from the closing figures and the following trading session.
Opening Bell: Weak Sentiment on Global Cues
The Indian stock market opened lower, tracking weak sentiment in global markets. Investors across Asia remained cautious amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East and expectations surrounding the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy outcome.
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Nifty 50 opened at 24,824, down 29 points
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Sensex opened at 81,472, down 111 points
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GIFT Nifty futures indicated a similar cautious tone
This followed a significant increase in crude oil prices, with Brent trading above $87.5 per barrel. A surge in oil prices raised concerns about inflationary pressures, especially in oil-importing nations like India. The rupee depreciated to 86.43 against the dollar, touching a near two-month low.
Mid-Morning Recovery Driven by Domestic Institutions
As the session progressed, buying activity picked up, led primarily by domestic institutional investors (DIIs). The market witnessed a broad-based recovery after an initial dip.
Institutional Activity (as of June 17):
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DIIs net bought equities worth ₹8,207 crore
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FIIs net bought ₹1,483 crore in the cash segment
This marked the 21st consecutive session of DII net buying, underlining the strength of domestic capital amid global volatility. While FIIs have been net sellers for most of the year, recent sessions have seen some selective accumulation, particularly in banking and consumer-linked stocks.
Sectoral Trends
Auto Sector
The auto index was the best-performing sector of the day. Stocks across the board saw healthy gains as expectations of strong rural demand, lower input costs, and a favorable monsoon forecast lifted investor sentiment.
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Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) rose over 6 percent
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Maruti Suzuki gained over 4 percent
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Bajaj Auto saw a surge of 3.8 percent
Auto sector performance was further boosted by the fall in steel and rubber prices, key raw materials for vehicle production.
Financial Services
Banks and financial institutions also contributed to the market recovery.
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IndusInd Bank surged over 5 percent following an upgrade by Nomura, which cited improved corporate governance and asset quality
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ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, and Kotak Mahindra showed moderate gains as investor appetite for financials returned
The financial index was up nearly 1.2 percent by mid-session.
IT and Technology
Information technology stocks remained under pressure due to uncertainties around U.S. interest rate policy and concerns about reduced corporate tech spending.
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Infosys, TCS, and HCLTech witnessed intraday declines of 0.5 to 1.3 percent
Metals and Pharma
These sectors remained subdued due to global slowdown fears and weak commodity demand.
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Tata Steel and JSW Steel traded flat to negative
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Pharma stocks like Sun Pharma and Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories saw modest losses
Stock Highlights
IndusInd Bank
One of the top gainers of the day, IndusInd Bank rallied after brokerage Nomura upgraded the stock to “Buy” citing structural improvements in corporate lending, stronger CASA ratio, and improving net interest margins.
BSE Ltd.
BSE shares dropped over 1.6 percent amid concerns about a change in the derivatives settlement calendar. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) approved a shift in weekly expiry dates for the BSE from Wednesday to Thursday, potentially hurting its trading volumes.
Reliance Industries
Reliance provided significant support to the index. Its diversified portfolio in telecom, retail, and new energy continues to attract investor attention. The stock moved modestly higher by around 0.7 percent.
Market Breadth and Volume
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Market breadth favored advances with a ratio of approximately 3:2
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NSE total volume was above its 20-day average
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Participation was strong across mid-cap and small-cap stocks
This suggests healthy accumulation at lower levels and broad investor confidence despite external uncertainties.
Technical Analysis
Nifty 50
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Immediate support lies at 24,800, which is also the 21-day exponential moving average
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Resistance stands at 25,000, which has been acting as a psychological and technical barrier
A move above 25,000 with volume would indicate a bullish breakout. Until then, Nifty is likely to remain in a consolidation phase between 24,800 and 25,000.
Sensex
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Support at 81,400
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Resistance at 82,000
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Closing expected around 81,850 if current momentum sustains
Options Data
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Highest open interest on call side: 25,000 strike
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Highest open interest on put side: 24,500 strike
This signals market participants expect Nifty to remain range-bound within this band.
Foreign Exchange and Commodities
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The Indian rupee depreciated to 86.43 per USD
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Crude oil remained elevated due to geopolitical risks
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Gold prices rose mildly as investors sought safe haven assets
Currency depreciation could impact import-heavy industries such as oil marketing companies and consumer electronics, while exporters may benefit.
Global Factors in Focus
Geopolitical Tensions
Continued conflict between Israel and Iran has raised fears of energy supply disruptions. This tension is indirectly pushing commodity prices higher, which could negatively impact global risk assets.
Federal Reserve Policy Decision
Later tonight, the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. However, market participants will focus closely on the language of the policy statement and press conference. Any hint of hawkish bias or future rate hikes could lead to risk aversion across global markets.
Market Outlook for Closing
Based on current momentum, the Indian equity markets are expected to end the session with moderate gains.
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Nifty is likely to close near 24,950
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Sensex expected to end around 81,850
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The market may test resistance at 25,000 but is unlikely to sustain above it without a strong global tailwind
Tomorrow’s Opening Outlook (June 19, 2025)
Expected Opening Scenario:
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GIFT Nifty indicates a flat to marginally positive open in the range of 24,920 to 24,940
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Support levels: Nifty at 24,800 and Sensex at 81,500
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Resistance levels: Nifty at 25,000 and Sensex at 82,000
The tone for tomorrow will largely depend on the outcome of the U.S. Fed meeting and overnight movements in global markets.
Strategy for Investors and Traders
Short-Term Traders
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Use pullbacks towards 24,800 as an opportunity to enter long positions with stop loss at 24,700
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Avoid aggressive long positions near 25,000 without a clear breakout
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Sector focus: Auto, Financials, and Consumer Durables
Long-Term Investors
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Continue accumulation of fundamentally strong stocks in staggered fashion
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Themes to focus on: domestic consumption, banking, green energy, EV and battery tech
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Example: Exide Industries – exideindustries.com
Caution Areas
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IT and Pharma sectors may remain volatile until global macro uncertainties resolve
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Stay cautious of stocks with high promoter stake sales, which have crossed ₹40,000 crore in June so far
Conclusion
June 18 demonstrated the Indian market’s ability to absorb global shocks and bounce back with the support of strong domestic liquidity. Despite weak global cues and higher crude prices, Nifty and Sensex staged a recovery, led by auto and financial sectors. Institutional buying, especially by DIIs, continues to lend strength to the markets.
However, the upside remains capped near the 25,000 mark on Nifty until global clarity emerges, especially from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The currency and crude oil trends will also play a significant role in shaping investor behavior in the short term.
While short-term caution is advised, the medium to long-term outlook for Indian equities remains strong, supported by domestic consumption, digital transformation, infrastructure development, and green technology adoption.
