Commodity markets have faced strong price moves over the past 24 hours. Energy markets remain the main focus because of the situation around the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have moved sharply as traders assess possible changes in Gulf supply routes, Saudi export flows and signals from Iran.
Other parts of the commodity market show a different picture. Copper has moved close to record levels as Chinese warehouse stocks fall to very low levels. Gold has faced pressure from expectations of higher US interest rates. European natural gas remains sensitive to LNG supply and the security of Gulf shipping routes.
Agricultural commodities have also reacted to changes in crude oil, trade policy and regional supply conditions. Palm oil has received support from crude and soyoil. Wheat prices remain affected by Black Sea logistics. Soybeans remain sensitive to US-China trade relations.
The figures below come from market reports issued mainly on September 22, 2026. Some prices refer to specific points during the trading session rather than final settlement levels. Commodity prices can change quickly, so the data should be read with the relevant time and contract details.
Oil remains the central commodity story
Crude oil has experienced sharp price changes as markets assess the future of supply through the Gulf. Brent and WTI moved below the $100 level during the period after reports that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the United States reduces military pressure.
One market report placed Brent at $98.98 a barrel and WTI at $93.58 at 04:56 ET on September 22. Another Reuters update later placed Brent near $99.94 and WTI near $95.43. The difference reflects different times during the same trading day.
The key issue is that a possible reopening is not the same as a confirmed return to normal trade. The reported Iranian position was conditional. Physical shipping data also showed that traffic through Hormuz remained far below normal levels.
Reuters reported that only two commodity vessels crossed the strait on Monday, compared with ten the previous day. Before the conflict, the route carried about 125 large commercial vessels a day. Reuters also noted that vessel-tracking data may not capture every ship because some vessels can switch off their tracking systems.
This creates a major gap between market expectations and physical supply. A political statement can reduce the risk premium in futures prices. A sustained return of vessels would provide stronger evidence of a real improvement in supply conditions.
Saudi Arabia provides another supply route
Saudi Arabia has taken steps that could provide greater export flexibility. Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia resumed operations at its East-West Pipeline and increased crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi crude exports through the strait averaged about 2.9 million barrels per day over six days, according to the report.
The East-West Pipeline is important because it can move Saudi crude toward the Red Sea without the need for the entire volume to pass through Hormuz.
This does not remove all Gulf supply risks. It does, however, give Saudi Arabia another route for part of its crude exports.
For the oil market, actual export volumes may matter more than individual political statements. If Saudi flows remain strong and Hormuz traffic improves, the supply premium could fall further. If vessel traffic remains weak, the market may continue to price a high level of risk.
| Commodity | Reported price | Main factor |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | Near $99.94/bbl | Gulf supply and Hormuz |
| WTI crude | Near $95.43/bbl | Gulf risk and US policy |
| Brent crude | $98.98/bbl in an earlier report | Iran and Hormuz signals |
| WTI crude | $93.58/bbl in the same report | Supply-risk changes |
The different oil prices above refer to different times during the same period and should not be treated as conflicting final prices.
Hormuz remains a major physical risk
The Strait of Hormuz remains important because it carries a large share of global energy trade. The current problem is not limited to crude production. It also affects the movement of refined products, LPG and LNG.
Reuters reported that two vessels were hit in separate incidents in the strait. One was the crude tanker LR Stephanie and the other was the LPG tanker Al Maryah. Both vessels continued their journeys. The report did not establish responsibility for the incidents.
This detail matters because oil prices can fall even while the physical supply system remains under stress. Futures prices reflect expectations about future supply and demand. They do not always reflect the immediate condition of every shipping route.
A lower Brent price, therefore, does not by itself prove that the wider energy supply problem has ended.
Refined products face a separate challenge
Crude oil is only one part of the energy market. Diesel and other refined products have faced a separate supply problem.
Reuters reported that shortages of refined oil products had pushed prices to record levels in Europe and the United States. The report linked the pressure to the Middle East conflict and separate disruption related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
This distinction is important for consumers and industrial users. A lower crude price does not always lead to a similar fall in diesel prices.
Diesel prices depend on refinery output, product inventories, shipping routes and regional demand. If refineries face limited crude supply or transport problems, product markets can remain tight even when crude futures decline.
Higher fuel prices can also affect transport and industrial costs. The European Central Bank has noted that higher wholesale gas prices can pass into euro-area inflation more quickly than in earlier periods.
European gas remains exposed to LNG risks
European natural gas prices have also responded to changes in the Middle East risk picture.
One September 22 report placed the Dutch TTF benchmark near €71 per megawatt-hour after a move toward a three-week low. European gas storage was about 69.94% full, which was 11.76 percentage points below the level a year earlier. Norwegian gas exports also faced maintenance limits.
Another market report placed the TTF November contract at €73.96 per megawatt-hour, with a daily rise of 0.76%. The difference between the two figures relates to the contract and time used for each report.
The main concern is LNG supply. Europe relies on LNG from several regions, including the Gulf. Any disruption to LNG shipping through Hormuz can therefore affect European gas prices.
A report cited by The Wall Street Journal said European gas prices remained sensitive to possible disruption to LNG shipments from Qatar because of the Hormuz situation.
European storage provides some protection, but storage levels remain below last year’s level. This means the market can remain sensitive to any new supply disruption.
Gold faces pressure from US rate expectations
Gold has shown a different pattern from oil and copper.
Reuters reported that spot gold fell 0.4% to $4,325.03 an ounce. US gold futures fell 0.5% to $4,362.00.
The main factor cited in the report was the expectation of higher US interest rates for longer. Markets had placed a 90% chance on a December rate increase, based on the CME FedWatch measure cited by Reuters.
Gold can benefit from geopolitical uncertainty because some investors use it as a defensive asset. At the same time, higher interest rates can place pressure on gold because the metal does not pay interest.
The recent data show both forces at work.
Reuters also reported that gold was about 22% below its January peak of $5,594.82. Silver fell 0.5%, platinum rose 0.7% and palladium declined 1.1%.
| Metal | Reported move |
|---|---|
| Gold spot | -0.4% to $4,325.03/oz |
| US gold futures | -0.5% to $4,362.00/oz |
| Silver | -0.5% |
| Platinum | +0.7% |
| Palladium | -1.1% |
The figures show that precious metals are not moving as one group. Monetary policy, industrial demand and individual supply conditions affect each metal in different ways.
Copper shows strong physical demand
Copper has been one of the strongest parts of the commodity market.
Copper rose for a sixth consecutive session and moved closer to a record level. Bloomberg data cited by Moneycontrol showed LME three-month copper at $14,745 a tonne, up 0.6% at 10:45 a.m. Shanghai time.
The most important detail is the condition of Chinese inventories.
Shanghai copper cathode stocks fell to 43,900 tonnes. Shanghai Metals Market data placed this at the lowest level since 2023.
China is the world’s largest copper consumer. Low warehouse stocks can indicate limited readily available metal in the physical market.
The market also received support from pre-holiday buying in China. Some manufacturers increased stocks before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays.
Imported copper did reach China, but a large part of the metal went directly to fabricators instead of warehouses.
This creates a useful distinction between visible inventory and total supply. Low warehouse stocks do not guarantee a continued price rise. They do, however, provide evidence that readily available copper supplies are limited.
For now, copper has a stronger physical-market story than several other major commodities.
Palm oil tracks crude and vegetable oils
Malaysian palm oil futures also moved higher.
The December contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rose 20 ringgit, or 0.41%, to 4,877 ringgit, equal to about $1,197.10 per metric ton, in early trade on September 22.
The rise came after two sessions of losses.
Higher crude oil and stronger soyoil prices gave palm oil support. A weaker Dalian palm olein market limited part of the advance.
Palm oil has links to both the food and energy markets. It competes with other vegetable oils for food demand. It can also serve as a feedstock for biodiesel.
As a result, crude oil can affect palm oil even when there is no major change in palm production.
This relationship becomes more important during periods of large oil price moves.
Wheat faces Black Sea logistics pressure
Russian wheat prices declined during the latest period, but supply logistics remain a concern.
Reuters reported that Russian 12.5% protein wheat from the Vysotsk and Ust-Luga ports was priced at $268 per metric ton FOB for November delivery at the end of the previous week. The price was $6 lower than the previous week.
Analysts raised their estimates for Russian September shipments, although the expected volume remained at multi-year lows.
Most shipments have shifted toward Vysotsk and Ust-Luga because southern Russian ports remain closed.
Reuters reported that shipments through the Azov-Black Sea basin had stopped from mid-August after attacks on vessels and damage to terminals.
The situation shows why price and physical supply must be viewed separately. A lower wheat price does not automatically mean that all supply risks have disappeared.
Global prices can fall because of demand, currency, competition or broader market factors even while a specific export region faces major logistics problems.
Soybeans remain tied to US-China trade
Soybeans continue to respond to developments in US-China trade relations.
Reuters reported that Chicago soybean futures rose on Monday as traders expected the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to support possible Chinese purchases of US agricultural products. Corn and wheat also rose at that time.
China is the world’s largest soybean importer. Any major change in Chinese purchases can therefore affect global soybean demand.
The report also stated that the White House had said in May that China had committed to buy at least $17 billion of US agricultural products across 2026, 2027 and 2028.
Such commitments should not be treated as a guarantee of a specific future soybean purchase. Actual trade volumes can depend on prices, tariffs, crop conditions, political decisions and commercial demand.
The soybean market therefore remains sensitive to both policy statements and actual shipment data.
Agricultural markets remain linked to energy
Energy prices also affect agricultural commodities through fuel, transport and biofuel demand.
One US market report on September 22 showed Kansas City wheat down 7 cents, Chicago wheat down 5 cents, Minneapolis wheat down 5 cents, corn down 4 cents and soybeans down 1 cent at the time of the update. Crude oil was down $1.93 a barrel and gold was down $3.50 an ounce in that market update.
Other data from September 22 showed a different result, with corn, soybeans and wheat all higher by around 2% in another market summary. The difference reflects large intraday moves and different reporting times.
For this reason, one intraday price should not be treated as the full daily picture.
Crop size, weather, exports, tariffs, freight rates, fuel costs and biofuel demand can all affect agricultural prices at the same time.
Market comparison
The latest data show that the commodity complex does not have one common direction.
| Market | Latest reported data | Main driver |
|---|---|---|
| Brent crude | Near $99.94/bbl | Hormuz and Gulf supply |
| WTI crude | Near $95.43/bbl | Middle East risk and US policy |
| Hormuz traffic | 2 commodity vessels | Severe shipping disruption |
| Gold | $4,325.03/oz | US rate expectations |
| Silver | -0.5% | Monetary and industrial factors |
| Platinum | +0.7% | Industrial and precious-metal demand |
| Palladium | -1.1% | Industrial demand |
| Copper | $14,745/t | Low Chinese stocks |
| Shanghai copper stocks | 43,900 tonnes | Limited visible supply |
| European gas | About €71–€74/MWh | LNG and storage risks |
| Palm oil | RM4,877/t | Crude and vegetable oils |
| Russian wheat | $268/t FOB | Black Sea logistics |
| Soybeans | Trade-sensitive | US-China demand |
What could shape the next market session
The next major signal for oil may come from actual vessel traffic through Hormuz. A sustained return of commercial ships would provide stronger evidence of improved physical supply. Continued low traffic would suggest that the shipping risk remains active.
Saudi export volumes will also matter. The East-West Pipeline provides an alternative route for part of Saudi crude supply, but the wider Gulf system remains dependent on safe maritime transport.
For European gas, LNG arrivals and storage levels will remain important. A fresh disruption to Gulf LNG supply could quickly alter market expectations.
For copper, Chinese warehouse stocks deserve close attention. A further decline from the current 43,900-tonne level could reinforce concern about physical availability. A rise in inventories could provide a different signal.
Gold remains closely linked to US interest-rate expectations. Any major change in Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy expectations or the US dollar could affect bullion prices.
Agricultural markets will remain sensitive to trade talks, export flows and weather. Soybeans require particular attention to actual Chinese purchases. Wheat requires close observation of Black Sea ports and export routes. Palm oil will continue to react to crude oil and rival vegetable oils.
Final assessment
The latest 24-hour commodity picture is defined by several separate forces.
Oil remains highly sensitive to Middle East developments and the condition of the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia’s pipeline activity provides some additional export flexibility, while vessel traffic remains far below normal levels.
Natural gas faces a similar geopolitical risk, with European prices sensitive to Gulf LNG supply and storage conditions.
Copper has a strong physical-market signal, with Shanghai stocks at 43,900 tonnes, the lowest level since 2023 in the cited data. This has helped copper move closer to record levels.
Gold has faced a different environment. Geopolitical uncertainty can support defensive demand, but expectations of higher US rates have placed pressure on the metal.
Agricultural commodities remain connected to several factors at once. Palm oil follows crude and vegetable oils. Wheat faces Black Sea logistics issues. Soybeans remain closely linked to US-China trade.
The most important point for the market is that headline prices alone do not tell the full story. Physical supply, shipping activity, warehouse stocks, interest rates and trade policy can produce different signals at the same time.
As a result, the next major market move may depend less on one headline and more on whether the underlying physical data confirm the change in expectations.
